Trial Run

Mumbai Marathon 2010

2010-01-22T07:20:00.014+05:30

Completed 21k in 2:09:43 this time :)

My rank appears here

Intentional Defaults

2009-09-08T07:55:00.010+05:30

Having worked on few cases in notorious real-estate and construction space, I have seen credit-ratings of entities getting constrained not just by their capacity to repay debt, but also by their intention to repay debt (on time).

How do rating agencies assess likelihood of intentional default by issuers? Is it within their 'scope' to assess likelihood of an entity defaulting despite having funds to meet obligations? I would like to believe, Yes!

After all, a rating reflects the agencies' opinion on the creditworthiness of the issuer. Such an opinion entails not just the capabilities to meet repayments on time, but also the intentions of doing so. Arriving at the capability of an entity to repay debt is a slightly more black-&-white task, in that it can be arrived at by using excel spreadsheets, running sensitivities on future cash flows etc. The analyst can also clearly state his/ (hardly her) assumptions, which can be assessed by sector experts for reasonableness.

Arriving at the intention of an entity to default is however very tricky. Much of it depends on factors such as the opinion formed by the analyst during his interaction with the management, size of the company, how long it has been in business, reputation of its brand(s), sector(s) it operates in, feedback from its bankers/auditors and so on. Apart from being very subjective in nature, what complicates these factors is that logic can often turn on its head while making assessments. For e.g., one would like to believe that the more reputed a builder/developer is, lower is the likelihood of him intentionally defaulting on his debt repayments. That's logic. But in practice however, this can turn out to be otherwise. While a smaller player might not have the clout to influence banks, and hence not default on its obligations, the bigger ones might care less and be very comfortable while defaulting. Reputation and popularity has at times been seen to increase when companies have acted notoriously, than when they have been forthright.

Given such a scenario, and the vast experience of the Rating Committee members (who are the final authority in arriving at ratings), questioning and comparing ratings purely on the basis ratios and financial indicators might turn out to be quite naive. I don't intend to conclude that all ratings are god-said, but rather to explain why ratings vary between two companies with exactly similar financial profiles.

I wonder if any kind of research has been done anywhere on how one can predict/estimate/asses the intention of an entity to default, or even whether it is possible to do so. I'm running out of time right now, and don't want to leave this un-posted. So here my first blog on one out of the several issues involved in carrying out a credit-rating exercise.

03007032

2008-08-16T20:59:00.003+05:30

is a very significant number!

2008-08-13T23:29:00.014+05:30

Okay! For some reason, I've decided to write something today

Good: Awesome gentle drizzle since 48 hours
Bad: Can't go out for food

Good: Got great sleep last night
Bad: Had a class early in the morning
Good: I din't have to do anything in my group for our IDF project presentation
Bad: I'll have to write its final report now
Good: I thought Everyone's presentations in today's class sucked!
Bad: Ours' sucked the most!? The prof folded hands in sarcasm
Funny: An entire group came in business casuals for their presentation..

Good: Got my exchange loan amount disbursed
Bad: I'll have to repay it one day

Good: Dinner at Hyderabadi Biryani
Bad: 200 bucks!

Good: Blogging after long
Bad: Have only such stupid things to write about!

2007-02-02T19:36:00.004+05:30

And somewhere there are engineers
Helping others fly faster than sound.
But, where are the engineers
Helping those who must live on the ground?

—read this one here

Mumbai Marathon

2007-01-23T02:28:00.002+05:30

21.097 Kms in 2 hrs and 34 mins!! :D
My "Dream run" last year was a great experience in itself, but completing the half-marathon yesterday is making me feel grand.

2006-11-10T13:38:00.001+05:30

It is one of the most beautiful compensations of life, that no man can sincerely try to help another without helping himself.

—Ralph Waldo Emerson

2006-09-09T12:52:00.001+05:30

Finally some leisure time to upload these

That's it! Had fun being there and taking snaps. The music (loud drumming in particular) somehow din't sound as inviting and energising that night as it usually does. Nonetheless, it was a good break, especially after the long day that I had and the long ones I am anticipating.

Ganapati Bappa Moriya

2006-09-02T16:59:00.002+05:30

If you're among those who enjoys loud roadside drumming, then my house (right besides Powai lake) is the place to be during Ganesh visarjans. I have had the comfort of an 8th floor balcony to witness this spectacle for the last 3 years.

This year however, I own a digicam! And although most pictures I click are worth discarding, I'm planning hit the roads this Wednesday (last day of immersions), look at things more closely, and of course, get a few good snaps of the fete.

Until I do that, here's wishing everybody a very happy Ganesh Chaturthi. May lord Ganesha bless you (and me) with intellect, strength, and courage to overcome difficulties in life and meet with success.

Tujhse Naraaz Nahin Zindagi...

2006-08-28T08:25:00.001+05:30

Just after all the Ganesh Chathurti prayers got over yesterday afternoon, and we ate the fine festive meal, we sat down to watch TV. It was HeroHonda SaReGaMaPa and one particular song overwhelmed the atmoshphere, not just in the show on TV, but more so in my mind. The song is "Tujhse Naraaz Nahin Zindagi". It was sung by a Kid - Sameer of Mumbai. He had such unrestrained emotional appeal in his performance that he brought himself, and even the judges, to tears.

It’s amazing how some songs connect so well to our head and heart. I don't really know why, but perhaps for the simple memories one can associate with such songs, and hence, for how one is able to personally experience the feelings embedded in them, they become one's entirety for a while. Once such a thing happens, the song becomes very close to our heart, and thereafter we don't just listen to the song, we feel it..

To me, this particular song about the incoherent, but yet (perhaps at some later time) relishable mixtures of events, emotions and thoughts that we pass through in life. Here are the words...

Tujhse naraaz nahin zindagi hairaan hoon main
tere masoom sawaalon se pareshaan hoon main

Jeene ke liye, socha hi nahin, dard sambhaalne honge
muskuraayen to, muskuraane ke, karz utaarne honge
muskuraaoon kabhi, to lagtaa hai
jaise honton pe karz rakhaa hai

(When I smile, it feels like a debt weighing on my lips)

blank line

Zindagi tere gham ne hamein rishte naye samjhaaye
mile jo hamein dhoop mein mile chhaon ke thande saaye

blank line

aaj agar bhar aai hain, boondein baras jayengi
kal kya pata, inke liye ankhein taras jayengi
jane kab ghum hua, kahaan khoya

ek aansu chupaake rakhaa tha

Words that touched me deeply..